The European market is recovering after the two-year plunge of the Covid-19 pandemic
The European truck market continues to recover, with new registrations rebounding 18% this year after falling 27% in 2020. Supply-side delays following disruptions and shortages will slow the upward trend, but order books suggest the recovery will last 2022.
The return of European road transport
The European road transport sector recovered surprisingly well from the pandemic lows of spring 2020. The sector was affected unevenly by different lockdown measures between countries, but after consumption shifted from services to goods, overall volumes rose faster than what many expected and increased - trade led to additional transport activity. With costs fairly flat or even lower, 2020 was also better than expected financially.
German Autobahn Kilometers (MAUT) surpassed the 2019 cumulative level again from March 2021 onwards, suggesting that activity is now almost on track.
At the European level, we expect road transport performance to largely recover to pre-pandemic levels in the 2021 financial year.
Stagnation in fleet expansion for 2020
The European truck fleet expanded less than the increase in transport volumes in the pre-pandemic years.
Poland (+17%) and Romania (+24%) showed the largest increase in rolling stock, following the shift of international transport to Eastern Europe. This turned Poland into Europe's largest road transport country, the base for 1,15 million registered heavy trucks (> 3,5 tonnes).
New truck inflow was low last year and the fleet may have declined slightly. However, spare capacity remains tight on average, leaving room for fleet expansion once transport growth resumes.
Truck sales will suffer less than during the financial crisis
The recovery in truck sales after the pandemic recession started earlier than during the recession after the global financial crisis in 2009.
While registrations were down from GFC all-time highs, significant inventories of new-build trucks were still being built. That didn't happen this time, with the market losing steam earlier and stocks at lows. This contributes to the current intake.
The UK trucking market, in particular, may benefit from local transport operations post-Brexit, although the country faces a driver shortage.
The European truck market is dominated by seven brands
The European truck market is dominated by seven brands, part of Daimler (Mercedes), Paccar (DAF), Volvo trucks, Traton (Scania, MAN), Iveco (CNH Industrial) and Renault. The market does not change significantly from year to year, although the market share of the big brands (in terms of units sold) has become more aligned over the years.
